The best statistic for predicting sports betting
Data and statistics have become an integral part of the sports industry during the 21st century, particularly when it comes to wagering on an event.
Regardless of which sport you enjoy betting on, there are numerous metrics you need to examine before deciding to part with your hard-earned cash.
To determine which is the best statistic for predicting NFL sports betting, we first need to understand how they are linked to your wagering activities.
Introducing statistics in sports betting
When a betting site sets the odds, they are effectively displaying the implied probability of a something happening in a sports event.
For example, let’s say an online bookmaker offers odds of 1/2 on the New England Patriots and 7/2 on the Chicago Bears to win an NFL fixture between the two teams.
They use data and statistics to formulate their prices and are implying that the Patriots are more likely to win the game. However, they do not always use every piece of information available to them when doing this.
By delving deeper into the statistics, you can gain an edge over the bookmaker by identifying where the ‘value’ lies, which is the key to success in betting.
The application of statistics to sports bets
In simple terms, bookmakers employ betting experts to ensure the odds they set truly represent the potential outcome of an event.
By developing the same skillset as those individuals, you can significantly improve your chances of making a consistent profit from your betting activities.
Relying on basic statistics such as league positions and recent form is only part of the equation when it comes to determining value bets, particularly in NFL betting.
Delving deeper into statistics such as head-to-head record, injuries, and other key metrics will give you a greater understanding of where the odds should actually be set.
Statistics and their link to betting value
As we mentioned earlier, bookmakers may not necessarily have the resources to be able to analyze every single piece of information when pricing up an event.
This point is particularly pertinent in the NFL, where value bets can be found throughout the season if you are prepared to undertake the research yourself.
The favorite does not always win NFL matches or cover the spread, so identifying when the bookie has made a misjudgment with their odds will help you take advantage of these situations.
By combing comprehensive form studying with statistical analysis, you will be well on your way to identifying where the value bets lie.
The number 1 statistic for NFL betting
Now you know how statistics can be applied to NFL sports betting; we can now identify which is the number one stat you should use.
The early down pass success rate is THE statistic that is best at predicting future performance and should be an integral part of your betting strategy.
It helps to decipher how proficient a team is at maintaining possession, which then informs you how likely they are to complete successful drives.
The pass success rate filters less efficient metrics and highlights how confident we can be about a team’s ability to score points.
Statistics and sports betting – The final word
From a statistical perspective, the number one element to focus on before placing any sports bet is identifying if the odds on your chosen event offer value.
By concentrating on this single statistic, you will filter out bad-value NFL bets and significantly improve your chances of making a consistent profit from wagering on sports.
Once you have found value in a betting market, it is imperative to ensure that the sportsbook offering the odds is completely trustworthy.
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