A guide to the best NFL betting statistics
When it comes to betting on the NFL, it would be fair to say that punters are spoilt for choice with the statistics they can use to inform their wagering activities.
Knowing which stats to focus on is no easy task, so we have worked hard on your behalf to narrow down the options. Here are our top recommended NFL betting statistics.
Yards per play
Comparing teams purely by the number of points they have scored and conceded is far too simplistic if you are striving to take your NFL betting to the next level.
You can obtain predict potential future points insights much more accurately if you assess the yards accumulated and allowed per play.
By making handicapping adjustments based on the strength of the schedule, yards per play will give you a better grasp of how a team is likely to perform.
Pass vs rush
Analyzing efficiency ratings for offensive and defensive units is an excellent way to determine how two teams match up against each other.
While the betting may tell you that one team is the favorite to win a particular game, this statistic can help you identify if their opponents are actually the value bet.
Efficiency ratings can also be helpful when utilized in the in-play markets, especially where totals and points spreads are concerned.
Predicting future sacks can be a tricky business, particularly as the margins between success and failure in this area are so fine.
However, taking pressure rate into consideration will help you identify which quarterbacks are most adept at avoiding pressure and which defensive units cause it the most.
Pressure rate can not only be used to predict future sack totals but is also extremely useful in predicting pass success rate.
Early-down pass success rate
Assessing early-down pass success rate is much more effective in predicting future performance than the outcome of third and fourth-down plays.
It takes into account that the offensive unit has more options available during the early set of plays, thus giving the opposing side more potential elements to defend against.
Performance in the first two downs tells you how adept a team is at maintaining possession, which feeds into the likelihood of them completing a drive with a touchdown.
Explosive Play Rate
If you are in the business of betting totals, the explosive play rate provides a useful insight into how two teams will likely match up against each other.
In simple terms, successful underbets are likely to be based on low explosive play rates supported by low success rates. Overbets will be the opposite.
By searching for situations where these metrics have not been factored in correctly by the oddsmakers, you can identify value bets and wager accordingly.
Many punters are guilty of neglecting special teams when handicapping a game, but it is imperative not to make that mistake if you want to be successful.
Elements such as kick-offs, field goal kicking, return teams, and coverage units can be the difference between winning and losing in a game.
Net punting statistics are another hugely important metric to consider and are intrinsically linked to team success in the NFL.
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